Giancarlo Stanton, mired in an 0-for-16 skid, got the Yankees within 6-3 on a two-run single off Jordan Romero in the eighth. April 9: Angels 7, Blue Jays 1 -- Blue Jays struggling with K's The Blue Jays struck out another 12 times in the loss to the Angels, giving them 84 strikeouts as a team through the first eight games of the season, a new club record. ... 1B Luke Voit (partial left knee meniscus tear surgery) could start hitting off a tee next week. Yankees: SS Gleyber Torres was out of the lineup with a sore right ring finger stemming from a head first dive into first base on a pickoff play Monday night. âVintage Ryu,â Toronto manager Charlie Montoyo said. Toronto Blue Jays pitcher Hyun Jin Ryu works against the Atlanta Braves during the first inning of a baseball game Wednesday, May 12, 2021, in ⦠Even though it’s now a month into the season, I thought it would be interesting to take a look at what things look like, and then subsequently some of the best and worst outcome. Semien connected for a solo homer before Vladimir Guerrero Jr. made it 5-0 and ended Taillonâs night on an RBI double in the fourth. Gio Urshela filled in for Torres. Out of necessity and not design, Toronto has called upon their minor league outfield depth to overcome some early season injury woes to prized free agent George Springer and Teoscar Hernandez. Get the Blue Jays sports stories that matter. This reflects the number of younger position players entering their primes who could consolidate or breakout in 2021, as well as the potential for bouncebacks seasons from a number of starting pitchers. The Blue Jays pulled even in the sixth. In late March before the season began, I did a series of posts projecting the 2021 Blue Jays regulars. ... City to hit just five balls out of the infield. In late March before the season began, I did a series of posts projecting the 2021 Blue Jays regulars. ... RHP Nate Pearson (groin) will throw live BP on Wednesday. That results in the following forecast win distribution: Fundamentally, it’s the same distribution, just with a wider range of outcomes to reflect the possibility of good and bad “luck”. The Blue Jays ace retired 12 in a row after DJ LeMahieu had a leadoff infield single in the first. Since relievers pitch fewer innings and accordingly have a much narrower range of outcomes, five innings scenarios and a 7x5 matrix of 35 outcomes sufficed. Finally, the remainder of the innings are filled from by bullpen depth. Ryu (1-1) allowed only an unearned run over 6 2/3 innings, striking out seven and limiting the Yankees to four hits and a walk. Yankees RHP Corey Kluber (0-1) and Toronto RHP Ross Stripling (0-1) are the scheduled starters in Wednesdayâs series finale. âThe way it plays during the game, I see which of my pitches work for me,â Ryu said through a translator. To learn more or opt-out, read our Cookie Policy. Because the hitters enjoy considerable positional flexibility to be moved around as necessary to fill out a lineup, and the main reserves are are not particularly differentiable in terms of talent, I forecast the bench as one unit with 25 possible levels of productivity ranging from atrocious to competent, but centred on essentially replacement level. Cavan Biggio walked, stole second and scored on Marcus Semienâs double to the left-field wall. Please also read our Privacy Notice and Terms of Use, which became effective December 20, 2019. Hicks wrestled with the decision while driving to the game and said he got incredible support from his teammates. Just struggling.â. In the absolute worst of the 100 scenarios, those 11 regulars combine for just under 17 WAR, which in most years would rank just a little below average. It explicitly doesn’t contemplate the possibility of midseason additions if the Jays are in contention or fall out and sell off expiring contracts. With Hicks batting against closer Julian Merryweather with two on and two outs, Gary Sánchez got caught between first and second after a pitch in the dirt and was tagged out in a rundown. The logical extension to such an exercise is then rolling those projections up to the team level, and I intended to do so near the beginning of the year but didn’t get around to putting it all together. Again, it makes more sense to treat them as a group rather than trying to get ridiculiously granular. Semien extended his hitting streak to 11 games. I ran 100 trials of those simulated seasons, to get the following team level distribution. Josh Palacios had a two-run single in the second and Randal Grichuk hit a third-inning sacrifice fly off Jameson Taillon (0-1). âVintage Ryu,â Toronto manager Charlie Montoyo said. Their innings are whatever flows down from the six forecast starters, with productivity forecast as a group on a 25 point scale. A belated look at the sum of all the parts. On the low end, it rises quickly and steadily from the high 20-WAR totals into that flattish midsection, suggesting a relatively high floor largely due to the sheer amount of positional talent around the diamond. It's extremely tough when the situations like that happen.â. âToday my fastball, the velocity was there for me, so I used it more.â. As of Sundayâs game, the Blue Jays are a tenth of the way through their 2021 season. To wrap this up, later this week I’ll break down the best possible 2021 simulated seasons, and the worst case simulated seasons in terms of what goes right and wrong. Likewise, the same thing is done for starting pitcher depth. Hence, two more random variables to approximate the possibility for outliers (though in most cases the combined effects offset or are small). 2021. To some fans, it may seem like they will never break out of it . The Blue Jays had runners thrown out on the bases in each of the first two innings. The Blue Jays infield had three errors, including a pair by Bichette at short, while Matz was on the hill. Here my approach was a different than the last time I did this for 2018. Just last season, the Jays began 7-11 and it seemed like it would be another forgettable season. He wonât accompany the team for the start of a nine-game road trip that begins Friday in Kansas City. That gave a total of 25 players projected (11 position, 14 pitchers), who cumulatively will not come close to covering all the other playing time. This surpasses the previous high of 82, set in 2016. Likewise, while runs and run differential are related to wins, it’s not always linearly. Yankees center fielder Aaron Hicks was back in the lineup and went 3 for 4 after getting permission from manager Aaron Boone to sit out Mondayâs game following the police shooting of a Black man, Daunte Wright, in Minnesota. We use cookies and other tracking technologies to improve your browsing experience on our site, show personalized content and targeted ads, analyze site traffic, and understand where our audiences come from. Cole, etc; the waivers claims and minor league free agents who fill out pitching staffs and in today’s games cumulatively log a significant amount of innings. That’s WAR, but what about wins directly? Here more uncertainty has to be built in. Unfortunately the Blue Jays couldnât get any closer. Blue Jays: OF George Springer (quadriceps) took batting practice. âI just felt like it wasn't right for me to play that game,â Hicks said. The red line is a (smoothed) cumulative probability distribution, which really picks up starting in the high-70s and flattens out around 90 wins (the 20th percentile is 78 wins and 80th at 89 wins). Having created 49 different outcomes for of 17 regulars according to a 7x7 matrix of playing time, I then did an abbreviated version for the eight relievers who figured to be most significant: Ryan Borucki, Tyler Chatwood, Rafael Dolis, Thomas Hatch, Tim Mayza, Julian Merryweather, David Phelps and Jordan Romano (Kirby Yates was already known to be out for the year at this point). Get a recap of the Toronto Blue Jays vs. Kansas City Royals baseball game. From breaking news to in-depth analysis, get expert coverage from the best newsroom in sports, all personally delivered and ad-free. âIt was tough to read that somebody just got murdered. On the high end, there’s a much longer and thinner tail of positive outcomes at 40+ WAR. âHeâs in a good head space,â Boone said before the game. Taillon allowed five runs and eight hits over 3 2/3 innings in his second start after missing the 2020 season recovering from Tommy John surgery. This would be guys like Anthony Castro, Joel Payamps, A.J. By choosing I Accept, you consent to our use of cookies and other tracking technologies. The Blue Jays are in a funk to begin the 2021 season. Keep in mind, this is what things looked like on Opening Day, unadjusted for anything that’s happened since: Given that team replacement level is about 48 wins, the bulk of the distribution lying between 33 and 39 WAR suggests a low- to mid-80s win total, which roughly fits with where the Jays were forecast in the pre-season. 2021 Schedule 2021 Printable Schedule 2021 Promotions Schedule Blue Jays Radio Network Sortable Schedule MLB Important Dates Roster 40-Man Roster Depth Chart Top 30 Prospects Transactions Injury Report Front Office Directory Coaches Broadcasters Draft Results Starting Lineups Final score: Red Sox 4, Blue Jays 2 . WAR is just production of individual events, and that translates imperfectly into runs. He has been away from the team since last Thursday after having close contact with someone away from the team that tested positive. "When he takes the mound, we know we have a good chance to win. The Blue Jays ace retired 12 in a row after DJ LeMahieu had a leadoff infield single in the first. Here the possible outcomes incorporate the possibility for someone like Alex Manoah to come up and make a midseason impact, so there’s scenarios where this group adds real value. X-rays and a CT scan were clean. The main idea was to create and show a distribution of outcomes based rather than the single “point projection” that are published by various projection systems representing an expected value of median scenario. In both cases, there’s significant upside if things break right, somewhat akin to what happened for the 1985 Blue Jays. What’s more interesting is the shape of the distribution. When Springer finally makes his Blue Jays ⦠Romero replaced David Phelps, who earlier in the eighth departed after get hit in the lower back by Clint Frazier's 107 mph line drive single. And then at the end of 2021, hopefully circle back to see what this analysis got right and wrong. Bichette has six errors this season. Projecting the 2021 Blue Jays regulars: Catchers/DH | Infield | Outfield | Starting Pitchers. ST. PETERSBURG, Fla. â Steven Matz won his fourth consecutive start, Marcus Semien hit a three-run homer, and the Toronto Blue Jays beat the Tampa Bay Rays 5-3 on Friday night. Bichette has six errors this season. The median lies at 83-84 wins, with worst and best case scenarios at 68 and 98 wins. Merryweather didn't return for the ninth due to left hip irritation. Bo Bichette put Toronto ahead 7-3 with an eighth-inning sacrifice fly. Montoyo announced that OF Teoscar Hernández tested positive for the coronavirus on Tuesday. He's a father to his son, and he's also a son to his mother. Playing time is what spills over from the regulars, the difference between the total for the 11 regulars in a given scenario. DUNEDIN, Fla. -- â Hyun Jin Ryu cruised into the seventh inning, Marcus Semien and Rowdy Tellez homered, and the Toronto Blue Jays beat the New York Yankees 7-3 on Tuesday night. All in all then, with 25 players and three groups of reserves, that’s 28 independent variables for each simulated season. Projecting the 2021 Blue Jays: team distribution, Ryu and bats were great, Jays beat Red Sox, Baby Jays Recap - Ryan Gold drives in 3 in Vancouver win, Kevin Smith & Gabe Moreno hit 3-run HR’s in losing causes, GameThread Game #40: Red Sox at Blue Jays, Players with Toronto on their no-trade list, Primer on Transactions: Options, Outrights, and Waivers, Blue Jays Option and Outright Status Table. Jonathan Davis and Josh Palacios have received some unexpected playing time, with Palacios having early success at the plate.. âThereâs no question he was down yesterday when we first talked in my office. Boone texted with Hicks in the morning and the pair met at the ballpark. One final caveat is that this considers only players within the organization. Tellez had a fifth-inning solo shot off Lucas Luetge.
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